Scenario Modelling

Test scenarios with simulation

The Problem

You have a number of different options to choose between but need to understand the implications of each before making a decision.

How can you see the likely effects of taking each option and quantitatively measure the expected risk and reward?

The Solution

Our scenario simulator is an interactive tool that uses system dynamics to assess the impact of business decisions against a custom-built model of your business.

We work with you to establish the key parameters and input variables that affect the relevant outputs and derive the relationships between each of the various factors inside the model.

Once the model is built, we show you how to adjust the parameters in the tool to model various scenarios and are also able to build and run discrete event simulations to test how the output evolves over time.

Inputs

Time with your team to understand the business rules, parameters and variables that affect the output and the relationships between these factors.

Deliverables

1. A model built in Python or R that outputs the expected value of key business metrics, given input parameters that define a particular scenario

2. A simple user interface to the model, where parameters can be changed and if required, discrete event simulations can be run

3. Analysis from the scenario modeller and documented recommendations on which option is likely to prove the most profitable long-term

Outcome

You'll be able to make an informed decision based on statistically verified simulations and can adapt the model as your business evolves.

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